Okay, Saturday has finally arrived. It is the last weekend of college basketball for the 2010/011 season and Uconn, the team picked to finish 10th in the Big East, the team everyone (including yours truly) left for dead at the end of the regular season, the team that had to play on the dreaded Tuesday of the Big East Tournament, is one of the last teams standing, and a popular pick to walk away with another title.
First hurdle on their way to that trophy, John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats.
Things I Hate About this game:
*I know Uconn has done a really good job of playing the three point line over the last few weeks, but they still have a hard time with good screens, especially Shabazz, who has a tendency to either go over, or under, the screen at the exact wrong time. I worry about Shabazz, who will probably cover Brandon Knight a lot in this game, getting lost and letting him go nutty from three. If Kentucky is making its 3's the way they did against UNC, it could be a long night for Uconn.
*Kentucky scares me because they are all so long and athletic, and while Uconn is also athletic Kentucky just seems to have a guy who can drive and shoot, equally well, at every position. With Arizona, if you shut down Derek Williams, you knew you had a good chance. With Kentucky, even if you take away Knight, other guys can kill you.
*I believe in Kemba. I think the game he had against Arizona is as "bad" a game as you can expect from him. I'm honestly not worried about him throwing up a stinker (and, if he does, Uconn goes home early). I do, however, worry a little about Jeremy Lamb. He's a freshman. He's been sooooo good these last few weeks, these last few games. Is he going to be able to duplicate that? Is he due for a down game? If so, I don't have a tremendous amount of confidence that someone else steps up and takes his place in the box score.
*Uconn has won nine consecutive games, most of which have come against very, very good teams. Winning that 10th, let alone 11th, against another very, very good team is a tall task. Eventually, you get a night where the ball doesn't bounce your way. Sometimes, you get a night where that last second three does find the bottom of the net, rather than the back of the rim.
*I think John Calipari is a used car salesman. There are NCAA infractions, and then there's rule breaking that offends your senses. Make a few phone calls, text a few too many times, and I laugh. Hold a barbecue at your house for recruits, I could care less. Have a few contacts with AAU coaches, and I roll my eyes. But, when you're program was paying a kid thousands of dollars (Marcus Camby) or someone was taking one of your recruit's SAT for him (Derek Rose) I have a major problem. My even bigger issue with Calipari is with what he did upon taking over at Kentucky. All the players on the team he didn't think could help him win were forced out. Real Sports on HBO did a great job reporting the story. If you were an okay player, Calipari essentially forced you out the door so he could get John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and the rest. He didn't want to wait for success. he wanted it immediately, and if that meant some kid who was recruited by Kentucky, loved playing for Kentucky, had his life turned upside down, so be it. Slimy.
Having said all that, Calipari has been to three Final Fours, should have won the championship with Memphis (one of the great choke jobs against Kansas in history) and I worry that it might be his time. He's gonna get one. This might be it. I worry about that. A lot.
Things I Love About This Games
*We have Kemba Walker and you don't, pure and simple. Kemba could have "one of those games" where he can't be touched. He could have 38 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists. He could break Kentucky's heart. I don't think anyone on Kentucky, even Knight, has that capability.
* Uconn is young, yes, but Kentucky is younger, and led by a kid. If you told me right now one of these teams will throw up a stinker, I'll pick Kentucky. If I am concerned about Uconn winning 9 games in a row against top quality, you have to have similar concerns about Kentucky, right? They have won 10 games in a row. They have done it against come equally difficult competition. They have also had to win two games (against Princeton and against Ohio State) with last second shots. Uconn has had close calls as well, but they have been more consistent. I don't believe the last-second magic will last a third time for Kentucky.
*I think Calipari is a superior recruiter and motivator. I don't think he is the in-game coach Jim Calhoun is. If someone needs to make an adjustment (and someone will need to) I have confidence in Calhoun pushing the right buttons.
*I think Uconn gets Kentucky into foul trouble. I think that gets into their heads. I think that keeps Uconn in control of the game, even when things get tight.
*Kentucky hasn't had to "come back" on anyone. They have taken control of games (Ohio State and UNC) and then had to hold them off down the end. I don't think Uconn lets Kentucky get that far out ahead of them. In the second half, I think Uconn opens a lead and then holds off Kentucky at the end.
First hurdle on their way to that trophy, John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats.
Things I Hate About this game:
*I know Uconn has done a really good job of playing the three point line over the last few weeks, but they still have a hard time with good screens, especially Shabazz, who has a tendency to either go over, or under, the screen at the exact wrong time. I worry about Shabazz, who will probably cover Brandon Knight a lot in this game, getting lost and letting him go nutty from three. If Kentucky is making its 3's the way they did against UNC, it could be a long night for Uconn.
*Kentucky scares me because they are all so long and athletic, and while Uconn is also athletic Kentucky just seems to have a guy who can drive and shoot, equally well, at every position. With Arizona, if you shut down Derek Williams, you knew you had a good chance. With Kentucky, even if you take away Knight, other guys can kill you.
*I believe in Kemba. I think the game he had against Arizona is as "bad" a game as you can expect from him. I'm honestly not worried about him throwing up a stinker (and, if he does, Uconn goes home early). I do, however, worry a little about Jeremy Lamb. He's a freshman. He's been sooooo good these last few weeks, these last few games. Is he going to be able to duplicate that? Is he due for a down game? If so, I don't have a tremendous amount of confidence that someone else steps up and takes his place in the box score.
*Uconn has won nine consecutive games, most of which have come against very, very good teams. Winning that 10th, let alone 11th, against another very, very good team is a tall task. Eventually, you get a night where the ball doesn't bounce your way. Sometimes, you get a night where that last second three does find the bottom of the net, rather than the back of the rim.
*I think John Calipari is a used car salesman. There are NCAA infractions, and then there's rule breaking that offends your senses. Make a few phone calls, text a few too many times, and I laugh. Hold a barbecue at your house for recruits, I could care less. Have a few contacts with AAU coaches, and I roll my eyes. But, when you're program was paying a kid thousands of dollars (Marcus Camby) or someone was taking one of your recruit's SAT for him (Derek Rose) I have a major problem. My even bigger issue with Calipari is with what he did upon taking over at Kentucky. All the players on the team he didn't think could help him win were forced out. Real Sports on HBO did a great job reporting the story. If you were an okay player, Calipari essentially forced you out the door so he could get John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and the rest. He didn't want to wait for success. he wanted it immediately, and if that meant some kid who was recruited by Kentucky, loved playing for Kentucky, had his life turned upside down, so be it. Slimy.
Having said all that, Calipari has been to three Final Fours, should have won the championship with Memphis (one of the great choke jobs against Kansas in history) and I worry that it might be his time. He's gonna get one. This might be it. I worry about that. A lot.
Things I Love About This Games
*We have Kemba Walker and you don't, pure and simple. Kemba could have "one of those games" where he can't be touched. He could have 38 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists. He could break Kentucky's heart. I don't think anyone on Kentucky, even Knight, has that capability.
* Uconn is young, yes, but Kentucky is younger, and led by a kid. If you told me right now one of these teams will throw up a stinker, I'll pick Kentucky. If I am concerned about Uconn winning 9 games in a row against top quality, you have to have similar concerns about Kentucky, right? They have won 10 games in a row. They have done it against come equally difficult competition. They have also had to win two games (against Princeton and against Ohio State) with last second shots. Uconn has had close calls as well, but they have been more consistent. I don't believe the last-second magic will last a third time for Kentucky.
*I think Calipari is a superior recruiter and motivator. I don't think he is the in-game coach Jim Calhoun is. If someone needs to make an adjustment (and someone will need to) I have confidence in Calhoun pushing the right buttons.
*I think Uconn gets Kentucky into foul trouble. I think that gets into their heads. I think that keeps Uconn in control of the game, even when things get tight.
*Kentucky hasn't had to "come back" on anyone. They have taken control of games (Ohio State and UNC) and then had to hold them off down the end. I don't think Uconn lets Kentucky get that far out ahead of them. In the second half, I think Uconn opens a lead and then holds off Kentucky at the end.
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